A commitment that I have made to my readers is that I will be transparent in my posts and share with you the good and bad about stock investing. This post will be uncomfortable to write. I have to dredge up some bad memories when I talk about this stock. JDSU was my “poster child” for how NOT to invest. Allow me to explain.

One of the painful memories that I have about stock investing revolves around the tech bubble that burst in 2001. I was not managing my own stock portfolio at that time and instead had a stockbroker handling it. It was the husband of my wife’s best friend. A really nice guy, but he was new in the broker business. He worked for a large Wall Street firm and really appreciated my business as he was growing his portfolio. I started investing with him in the late ’90′s and we did well for several years. I made a killing on Oracle (ORCL) and several other stocks. As this Dot-Com rally extended and people start getting really irrational (including myself), my biggest position was in JDSU.  I was heavily invested in this high, high-flyer that seemed destined to be the next Microsoft.  Well, we all know what happened. Before I knew it, my stock was worth one-fifth of what it had been.  My broker still told me not to sell…that is was going to come back. It didn’t and I finally sold it for a huge loss (also because I was angry and didn’t want to see it in my portfolio).

I have, since that date, tried to keep track of what my former “sure thing” was doing. JDSU has flirted with bankruptcy, been a penny stock, had some real struggles the last few years, BUT (and I can’t believe I am saying this) might be worthy of another look.

The stock has a strong balance sheet (plenty of cash ($3.15/share last quarter), good  ratios) that will allow it to ride through these challenging economic times.  The major box makers have cut back significantly on their orders and JDSU’s topline revenues reflects that.   Amazingly enough it is forecasting a return to profitablity within the next few months.

A look at the chart shows that the stock has rebounded recently to close yesterday at $4.68.  It shows that it has trading above its 50-day moving average and is pushing toward resistance in the $5/share range.  I think that JDSU might be worth a look  once we see how it reacts when it reaches its next resistance level.  It might push through and continue to make new highs or it might lose its momentum and fall.

Things to be aware of that caution me somewhat is that the MACD crossed over in conjunction with their rise from the mid-2′s in early March.  Look to see if any crosses occur if you are looking to the short side of this trade.  Stochastics also indicate that the stock may be oversold.  With an average voume of over 4 Million shares, you should have no problem getting in or out of the stock quickly.

I will be watching with you and looking to make some of my money back depending upon what happens with the chart.  It’s difficult for me to think about investing in that dang company because I’m still mad at ‘em…..and myself.