14
Jul

First Solar Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR)

First Solar Inc. (FSLR) engages in the design, manufacture and sale of solar electric power modules using a proprietary thin film semiconductor technology. The Company’s solar modules employ a thin layer of cadmium telluride semiconductor material to convert sunlight into electricity. It sells its products to project developers, system integrators and operators of renewable energy projects in the United States and Europe. FSLR also focuses on designing and deploying commercial solar projects for utilities in the United States. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings Inc. and changed its name to First Solar Inc. in 2006. FSLR was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

Share Statistics

10-Jul-09)

2007

2008

%

Chg

Q1 2008

Q1 2009

% Chg

Symbol

FSLR

Revenue, $Mn

504.0

1,246.3

147%

196.9

418.2

112%

Current price

$144.93

Gross marg.

46.5%

51.8%

5.3%

46.5%

54.8%

8.3%

52wk Range:

85.28-301.30

Oper. margin

27.2%

35.2%

7.9%

29.5%

40.2%

10.7%

Avg Vol (3m):

3,373,400

Net margin

31.4%

27.9%

-3.5%

23.7%

39.4%

15.7%

Market Cap.

12.24B

Dil. Shares Outst.

84.47M

EPS, $

2.03

4.24

n/m

0.57

1.99

248.9%

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Financial Summary

FSLR sales were $418.2 million for the three months ended March 28, up from $196.9 million during the same period last year. The Company reported it earned $164.6 million, or $1.99 per share, in the first quarter, compared with $46.6 million, or 57 cents per share, for the same period last year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of $1.50 per share on sales of $403.67 million for Q1 2009.

FSLR reaffirmed its fiscal 2009 net sales guidance range of $1.9 billion to $2 billion.

SALES (in millions)

# of Estimates

Mean

High

Low

1 Year Ago

Quarter Ending Sep-09

25

510.04

560.07

438.6

528.05

Quarter Ending Dec-09

25

541.23

600

457.04

573.14

Year Ending Dec-09

31

1,948.57

2,299.00

1,725.49

1,879.67

Year Ending Dec-10

30

2,633.92

3,278.00

1,997.54

2,664.84

Earnings (per share)

Quarter Ending Sep-09

27

1.73

2.23

1.02

1.64

Quarter Ending Dec-09

27

1.82

2.38

1.15

1.89

Year Ending Dec-09

35

7.28

8.8

5.09

5.83

Year Ending Dec-10

34

8.81

12.1

5.04

8.56

LT Growth Rate (%)

11

47.82

104

20

44

Source: Reuters.com

Analyst Consensus

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect FSLR to “Outperform,” with 13 analyst recommending the stock a “Buy,” down from 16 analysts three months ago; seven analysts expect the stock to “Outperform,” down from eight; 13 analysts rating the stock a “Hold,” up from nine analysts three months ago; one analyst expects the stock to “Underperform,” up from zero; and one analyst recommending the stock a “Sell,” down from two analysts three months ago. Thomson Reuters’ pooled analysts anticipate revenue of $1,949 million and EPS of $7.28 for the fiscal year 2009.

Investment Highlights

Since 2006, in order to satisfy its contractual requirements, the Company expanded its initial Ohio plant capacity from one to three production lines; started production at a four-line manufacturing plant in Germany, which reached its full capacity in the third quarter of 2007; built two of its four plants at its Malaysian manufacturing center; and expects plants three and four to reach full capacity in the first half of 2009. In addition, in late 2008, FSLR commenced construction of Ohio plant expansion, which is expected to be in full volume production by the end of second quarter of 2010. After all plants reach full capacity, the Company will have 24 production lines and an annual global manufacturing capacity of approximately 1,145MW by the end of 2010.

The Company reported that it received orders for 479 megawatts (MW) of solar around the world in Q1 2009. The Company will supply solar modules for a 1 MW rooftop project in Australia and a 53 MW power plant in Germany. It will also build a 48 MW expansion to Sempra Generation’s solar power plant in Boulder City, Nevada, and a 30 MW plant in northeastern New Mexico.

FSLR and Pfalzsolar, GmbH, a German solar project developer owned by Pfalzwerke AG, a public utility in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, announced the signing of a new long term supply agreement. The latest in a series of utility-linked agreements initially foresees delivery of FSLR’s photovoltaic modules to Pfalzsolar, beginning immediately, for use in rooftop and free field solar projects in Germany.

Global energy demand is expected to increase substantially with demand for electricity forecast to double from 17,408 TWh to 33,750 TWh by 2030, according to EIA. The solar industry has grown 48% annually since 2001. Some 2,826 MW of solar photovoltaics (PV) were installed worldwide in 2007, up 62% compared to the previous year, which, however, accounts for only 0.04% of the world’s energy usage. Thin-film solar production is expected to double in each of the next three years to reach 4.18 GW worth of equipment in 2010 and is going to make a major impact on the overall growth of the PV industry in the next five years.

The polysilicon shortage that began in April 2004 has encouraged the use of alternative materials such as copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe). Cadmium telluride, which had the highest production in 2008, is, however, expected to be overtaken by amorphous silicon and CIGS in the next years. Nevertheless, FSLR will remain a significant player in the industry with a niche technology adopted by some large companies.

Technical Analysis

fslr1

Source: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

FSLR is below its 13-day moving average. This bearish sign is even more significant because the moving average is also trending lower.

The MACD for FSLR currently indicates a strong bearish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is below the signal line, a 9-day moving average. Second, the MACD is below the critical level of 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending lower.

Comparative Analysis

The Company is traded with premium to peer group P/E and P/S multiples, mainly due to its leading position within the industry and solid revenue and earnings growth. The Company has a solid backlog, is building operating capacity and is well positioned for solid growth over the long term.

Company Name

Ticker

Price per

Mrkt. Cap.

P/E

P/S

Jul-10-2009

symbol

Share, $

$ Mn

2009

2010

2009

2010

Energy Conversion Devices

ENER

12.67

580

20.11

17.85

1.78

1.53

Canadian Solar Inc.

CSIQ

9.99

357

199.80

12.49

0.79

0.56

SunPower Corp.

SPWRA

22.87

1,970

21.99

12.23

1.45

0.98

Suntech Power Holdings Co.

STP

14.71

2,290

43.26

19.36

1.46

1.11

JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd.

JASO

3.92

633

n/m

15.68

1.59

0.92

Evergreen Solar Inc.

ESLR

2.00

330

n/m

25.00

1.16

0.76

Median

32.63

16.76

1.45

0.95

First Solar Inc.

FSLR

145.13

12,260

20.30

17.01

6.35

4.77

Source: Thomson Financial

Insider Trading Activity

NET SHARE PURCHASE ACTIVITY

Insider Purchases - Last 6 Months

Shares

Trans

Purchases

N/A

0

Sales

3,268,950

15

Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

(3,268,950)

15

Total Insider Shares Held

33.72M

N/A

% Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

(8.8%)

N/A

Net Institutional Purchases - Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr

Shares

Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

(1,621,500)

% Change in Institutional Shares Held

(3.4%)

Data provided by Thomson Financial

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