TWPG or Thomas Weisel Partners Group is an San Francisco-based  investment banking firm, offering investment banking, brokerage, equity research, and asset management services in the United States, Canada, and Europe.   The company has struggled with at least 5 quarters in a row of operating losses.  They also had a huge ($97MM) mark-to-market writedown in the 3rd Q of 2008.  As a result, their stock has been beaten down.

The reason for the title is that whenever I read about any company in the investment banking arena, I think of Michael Douglas as Gordon Gecko in Wall Street.  Having been a CPA and venture capitalist, I know their ilk very well.  I think that his portrayal was “spot on”, but I am not here to bash investment bankers.

However bad the news has been for TWPG, there is hope. The company has a strong cash and liquidity position and is well positioned to take advantage of its strengths when the capital markets come back (and they will).  What neither I nor TWPG has is a crystal ball to know when that it.  That is why I am going to talk about THE CHART!

What makes this company interesting is the chart. I think that this company might “pop” in the next few days or weeks.  It has taken several quarters of bad news and the general malaise in the capital markets to beat their stock down to the present level.  At $3.80, the stock’s next support level is $3.50.  Resistance is at $4.25, $4.50 and $4.75.  After that, I could see the stock surpassing its most recent high of $6.16.

Here is the chart:

The MACD indicates that the stock is in a bearish mode, but I feel that the oversold pressure will give this stock a bounce.   Earnings have been released already and TWPG, as a respected I.B., doesn’t play the press release game.  So, the movement in the stock is going to come from the chart. Watch the MACD for any improvement and if you see it cross, I would suggest keeping a real close eye on it.

Keep this one on your radar. TWPG is not going anywhere.  There are no going concern issues and the company is surviving in this economy.  It won’t take much for the stock to jump.

Good luck and good trading

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