AISYSTEMS, INC. (ASYI)

I get calls from Investor Relations people all the time.  They all want me to know about their client, company X, that will be the next best….whatever.  They are all earnest and mean well, but I don’t always trust them.

One IR guy that I do trust brought me AI Systems, Inc. (ASYI).

He arranged for me to talk with the President of the company, Stephen Johnston, several times.  Despite Mr. Johnston’s understandable reticence to give me anything meaty, his passion for and confidence in his company came through clearly.   I shouldn’t get too excited because I have been lied to by many IR guys and company personnel.  But, I don’t think Mr. Johnston is lying.

I also think that ASYI is a company that traders should put on their radar.  It is a longer-term prospect given its chart and current situation (no rev’s, no customers and little cash).

Sounds like a deal you can’t pass up?  Right?

ASYI is a specialty software company that is targeted to the Airline Industry.  They are offering a suite of software services that “Can change the airline industry as we know it“.  Those words came out of Mr. Johnston’s mouth and I am quoting them.  Let’s look at what is behind his bravado.

Currently, airlines plan their overall schedules (route, crew, fleet and maintenance) in a process that closely resembles a Rube Goldberg machine.  For the largest airlines, it takes literally hundreds of personnel many weeks to create an overall schedule for the airline.  And, it takes weeks and weeks to create…all at enormous cost to the airline.

According to ASYI’s latest press release, “The end-to-end process (of creating the master schedule) is extremely time consuming, inflexible and often hinders an airline’s ability to achieve and sustain profitability. Utilizing current technologies to create an airline business plan and schedule has become a highly complex, expensive and often error prone process typically taking weeks to months to complete.”

If there are any deviations in the schedule (Weather, Flight Delays, Broken Planes, Icelandic Volcanoes), then the process must start again.   The Icelandic Volcano of 2010 is a perfect example of what I mean…ASYI believes their software could have saved the airlines MILLION$ during this crisis alone.  ABC News reported (read it here) that airlines lost billions ($200MM per day) while the volcano had air travel shut down.  According to Mr. Johnston, what airlines lacked was a way to quickly, efficiently and effectively change their schedules.  There was NO WAY given the current way that schedules are  constructed for airlines to change quickly.

That is what ASYI is counting on.  They have created several pieces of software (jetEngine Business Planning Software (BPS) and jetEngine O/S) that could change forever the way that airlines manage their business.

The BPS software has been released and is currently on the market.  However, no sales have been reported yet as the company is “working with several major airlines” who have expressed interest in both the BPS and O/S software.  According to the company, the biggest impediment to full adoption is the airlines’ decentralized decision making structure and the cost of the software.  The BPS software will cost airlines $1MM annually (which is a big number to swallow) and the O/S software is double that.  The O/S (due out in 2011) will also include a $0.40 per passenger fee.

However, ASYI is counting on a cost/benefit analysis that clearly shows how much money airlines will MAKE using their software.  Mr. Johnston told me of a collaborative study that was done with a major domestic airline.  The airline gave ASYI all of their schedule data for a previous year and the company then ran those numbers through their program.  According to Mr. Johnston, the use of ASYI’s software would have resulted in an increase in EBITDA of $300 MILLION dollars.

The benefits to ASYI are clear: The passenger fee alone could mean millions upon millions to ASYI since the major airlines routinely fly 100 MILLION passengers annually.  In addition, it is important to note that there are well over 1,000 passenger airlines who are potential customers for ASYI’s software and at a million dollars per installation that could mean big dollars for the company.

Sounds great, but what’s the catch?

The catch is getting someone to buy the software.  ASYI has been around for several years and seemingly had it made a few years back with the signing of a $35 Million dollar contract with AeroMexico.  They were going to be the test bed for the new software.  It looked like everything was going to turn out well for ASYI.  Then the global recession hit the airline industry hard (AeroMexico too) and ASYI lost a great deal of momentum as well as the perfect test bed for their product.

The company has adopted a bunker mentality…dumping payroll (firing their CFO and COO recently) and keeping operations “lean and mean”.

The chart isn’t much help

With a bloated capital structure (over 90 Million shares in the float), I am curious how the company will generate trader interest.  They have done some promotion in the past, but that didn’t seem to lift the stock for very long.  I have a feeling that it will be news that drives this stock.  If they are able to start closing some customers in the near term, they might be able to reach their goal of being cash flow positive by 3Q 2011.

Bottom Line:

If I had a “Top Stocks for the New Millennium” list, I would put ASYI on it.  It is not a great stock to trade now (and that is management’s fault for large part), but the stock is all about the future.  I would like to see management and their investment bankers work the price down and tighten up the bid/ask spread.  Very few traders want to buy a software company with a market cap of $66MM that has no clients, no revenues and little cash in the bank.

HOWEVER, I am going to watch ASYI because I think it has real “home-run potential” .  I will watch with interest to see if the company can truly “revolutionize the airline industry”.

I will keep you posted.

Here is what I am looking at for entry/exit points (There is a little bit of fantasy about these numbers since ASYI doesn’t trade predictably yet)

Last Close:              $0.49

Buy Opinion:          $0.20 – $0.30

Short Term Sell:    $0.75

Long Term Sell:     $1.50

Good Luck and Great Trading,

Jeffrey Dean

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