Talk about a “beatdown”! Delta Petroleum Corporation (DPTR) last week announced the devastating news that their initial completion results from the Gray 31-23 well in the Columbia River Basin were very disappointing. The market HAMMERED their stock and it dropped like a stone.
At the time of the news, the stock had been on an upswing and was trading at a high of $4.68 on September 17, 2009. Currently, the stock is trading at $1.77 or a 58% decline from its high. It was dropping so fast that it looked like it was going to become a penny-stock! I am thinking that DPTR might be an attractive trading opportunity.
The company is not one of those natural resource exploration companies that is HOPING to find oil or gas….they are a producing oil and gas company. They had $22MM in revenue last quarter (down from previous quarters and, unfortunately, no profits) and have cash in the bank and receivables. I wouldn’t, however, say that they have a strong balance sheet. Their Quick Ratio is under 1 and they have $455MM in long-term debt. But, they appear to have enough there to fund operations for the foreseeable future.
Let’s look at the chart:
The stock is sitting at a strong support level (around $1.75) and is heavily oversold. The MACD is still bearish. I would suggest watching the histogram to see if the angle of bearishness subsides. The stock could continue to decline for a few more days, but I would expect a bounce.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it bounced. I can’t even begin to guess the long-term prospects of DPTR, but in the near term it might afford my readers a nice trading opportunity.
Labopharm Inc. (DDSS) is an international specialty pharmaceutical company focused on improving existing drugs by incorporating its advanced controlled-release technologies. The Company develops products internally in order to enter into strategic alliances or licensing agreements with national or international pharmaceutical companies that have the necessary resources and distribution networks to market and sell its pharmaceutical products.
The Company offers once-daily formulation of the analgesic tramadol under the Ryzolt brand name for the treatment of severe chronic pain in adults. Labopharm’s products in pipeline include once-daily formulation of Trazodone, a serotonin antagonist reuptake inhibitor for the treatment of depressive disorder. Its product candidates in clinical development based on Contramid platform comprise twice-daily formulation of tramadol plus acetaminophen to address acute pain; and Abuse Deterrent Platform to provide safer medications through resistance to the uncontrolled release of the active ingredient after actions, such as breaking, chewing, crushing and heating, or consumption with alcohol. Its product candidates in clinical development based on the Polymeric Nano-Delivery System platform comprise lipid-and preservative-free formulation of the intravenous anesthetic agent propofol; and SN-38, which is the active metabolite in the prescribed intravenous colon cancer drug irinotecan.
The Company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Laval, Canada.
Share Statistics Jul-20-09 |
2007 |
2008 |
%Chg |
Q1 2008 |
Q1 2009 |
% Chg |
||
|
Symbol
|
DDSS |
Revenue, CAD Mn |
19.0 |
22.0 |
15.8% |
3.2 |
5.0 |
56.3% |
|
Current price
|
$2.00
|
Gross marg. |
62.1% |
73.6% |
1,150 b.p. |
71.9% |
71.8% |
-10 b.p. |
| 52wk Range: |
$0.32-$2.95 |
Oper. margin |
-5.3% |
-184.5% |
n/m |
-290.6% |
-160.7% |
n/m |
| Avg Vol (3m): |
451,409 |
Net margin |
-192.6% |
-185.0% |
n/m |
-302.5% |
-160.7% |
n/m
|
|
Market Cap.
|
$113.7M |
|||||||
| Dil. Shares Outst. |
56.83M |
EPS, CAD |
-0.64 |
-0.72 |
n/m |
-0.17 |
-0.14 |
n/m |
DDSS’ revenue for Q1 2009 increased 56.3% to CAD5.0 million from CAD3.2 million for Q1 2008. Revenue from sales of the Company’s once-daily tramadol product for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 increased to CAD3.8 million from CAD2.2 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2008. Net loss for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 was CAD8.0 million, or CAD0.14 per share, compared with CAD9.7 million, or CAD0.17 per share, for the first quarter of fiscal 2008.
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at March 31, 2009, were CAD 35.9 million compared with CAD44.9 million at December 31, 2008. At March 31, 2009, the Company had a debt of CAD29.9 million and an accumulated deficit of CAD265.5 million.
|
Canadian Dollar |
# of Estimates |
Mean |
High |
Low |
1 Year |
|
SALES (in millions) |
|||||
|
Quarter Ending Sen-09 |
1 |
9.10 |
9.10 |
9.10 |
– |
|
Quarter Ending Dec-09 |
1 |
11.60 |
11.60 |
11.60 |
– |
|
Year Ending Dec-09 |
7 |
31.11 |
34.60 |
23.66 |
40.57 |
|
Year Ending Dec-10 |
5 |
63.06 |
92.20 |
46.47 |
57.26 |
|
Earnings (per share) |
|||||
|
Quarter Ending Sen-09 |
2 |
-0.09 |
-0.09 |
-0.10 |
-0.12 |
|
Quarter Ending Dec-09 |
2 |
-0.06 |
-0.06 |
-0.07 |
-0.10 |
|
Year Ending Dec-09 |
7 |
-0.45 |
-0.38 |
-0.54 |
-0.35 |
|
Year Ending Dec-10 |
4 |
0.10 |
0.19 |
-0.03 |
-0.05 |
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expectDDSSto “Outperform,” with three analyst recommending the stock a “Buy,” the same number as three months ago; one analyst expecting the stock to “Outperform,” the same number as three months ago; three analysts rating the stock a “Hold,” the same number as three months ago; and one analyst rating the stock with “Outperform,” the same number as three months ago.Thomson Reuters pooled analysts anticipate revenue of CAD31.11 million and a net loss per share of CAD0.45 for the fiscal year 2009.
In late 2008, FDA approved DDSS’ once-daily formulation of the analgesic tramadol – Ryzolt. The Company’s marketing partner for its product in the United States, Purdue Pharma L.P., launched Ryzolt tablets in May 2009, these being the second once-daily tramadol therapy to reach the U.S. market. DDSS’ once-daily tramadol product is being commercialized globally and to date has been launched in 15 countries, including Canada, Brazil South Korea, Australia and the five largest individual markets in Europe. In addition, it has received regulatory approval or is under regulatory review in 29 countries and the Company has established marketing partnerships for its product in 38 countries. Meanwhile, DDSS’ product (marketed under the brand name Tridural in Canada) was ranked number one among tramadol products in terms of new-to-brand prescriptions in Canada for the first quarter of 2009.
In September, 2008 DDSS submitted a New Drug Application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Trazodone (DDS-04A), a once-daily serotonin antagonist reuptake inhibitor (SARI) that provides an effective alternative in the treatment of major depression. On July 20, 2009, the Company received a complete response letter from the FDA, which states that theFDA will not approve its application for the antidepressant Trazodone in its present form as a result of deficiencies at the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) manufacturing facility. The API manufacturer, Gruppo Angelini, has said that the observations raised by the FDA are not critical.
Recently, DDSS amended its debt facility agreement with Hercules Technology Growth Capital Inc. Under the amended agreement, DDSS has extended the date required to begin repaying the loan to July 1, 2010, from July 1, 2009, and the maturity date of the loan has been extended to June 1, 2012, from December 1, 2011. In consideration of the revised repayment terms, DDSS will not draw down the remaining USD 5 million of the USD 25 million facility. DDSS also entered into a CAD 2.6 million credit facility with the National Bank of Canada (the ABCP Facility).
Depression therapy is one of the largest drug therapy markets in the world today. More than 120 million people around the world suffer from depression. The World Health Organization predicts that, by 2020, depression will be the second-largest cause of the global health burden. According to a report by AdvanceTech Monitor, the market for antidepressant drugs continues to grow, although the rate of growth has slowed down in recent years due to generics competition. Global sales of branded antidepressants rose over USD 20 billion in 2008.
The worldwide market for tramadol is estimated to be valued at USD 1.3 billion, and IMS Health estimates that the worldwide sales volume of tramadol has grown at a compounded annual rate of 14% over the past five years. Pain affects an estimated 76 million Americans and the annual cost of chronic pain in the United States is estimated at USD 100 billion, including healthcare expenses, lost income and lost productivity. The United States is the world’s largest market for tramadol products with sales for the 12-month period ended September 2008 of more than USD 650 million resulting from more than 25 million prescriptions, which have grown at a compounded annual rate of 11% over the last five corresponding periods.
The Company is trading near its lower Bollinger Band. This suggests that the stock price is low relative to its recent price action.
The Company is traded with premium to peer P/S multiples. The Company continues to prepare for the commercialization of its novel antidepressant and intend to launch in the U.S. market as soon as possible after it receives approval. With approval of their once daily tramadol in the United States, and pending approval of Trazadone, DDSS could move to profitability in a short time period.
| Company Name | Ticker | Price per | Mrkt. Cap. | P/E | P/S | ||
| Jul-20-2009 | symbol | Share, $ | $ Mn | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 | 2010 |
| DepoMed. Inc. | DEPO | 3.38 | 173.1 | n/m | n/m | 3.96 | 2.69 |
| Biovail Corp. | BVF | 13.75 | 2,180 | 9.23 | 8.49 | 2.74 | 2.55 |
| Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc. | WPI | 33.00 | 3,480 | 13.64 | 13.41 | 1.28 | 1.23 |
| Impax Laboratories Inc. | IPXL | 7.56 | 458.6 | 44.47 | 15.12 | 1.81 | 1.49 |
| Piedmont Natural Gas Company Inc. | PNY | 16.03 | 557.6 | 11.53 | 13.94 | 0.74 | 0.91 |
| QLT Inc. | QLTI | 2.66 | 145.3 | 16.63 | 14.00 | 1.25 | 1.27 |
| Median | 13.64 | 13.94 | 1.55 | 1.38 | |||
| Labopharm Inc | DDSS | 2.00 | 113.7 | n/m | n/m | 3.66 | 1.80 |
Source: Thomson Financial, Yahoo! Finance, Analyst estimates.
Net Share Purchase Activity
| Insider Purchases – Last 6 Months | ||
| Shares | Trans | |
| Purchases | n/a | n/a |
| Sales | n/a | n/a |
|
Net Shares Purchased(Sold) |
n/a | n/a |
| Total Insider Shares Held | n/a | n/a |
| % Net Shares Purchased (Sold) | n/a | n/a |
| Net Institutional Purchases – Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr | |
| Shares | |
| Net Shares Purchased (Sold) | n/a |
| % Change in Institutional Shares Held | n/a |
Data provided by Thomson Financial
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Medco Health Solutions Inc. (MHS) is a healthcare company that provides clinically driven pharmacy services for approximately 60 million Americans. MHS’ services are designed to lower total healthcare costs for private and public employers, health plans, labor unions and government agencies of all sizes, and for individuals served by the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans. The Company provides pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services through its national networks of retail pharmacies and its own mail-order pharmacies.
The Company’s Specialty Pharmacy segment, Accredo Health Group, provides specialty pharmacy products and services for the treatment of chronic and complex diseases. Through its subsidiary, Liberty Medical, the Company provides diabetes testing supplies and related products. MHS also offers services such as plan design, clinical management, utilization management, clinical services, pharmacy management, mail-order services, physician services and Web-based services. Its clients primarily include Fortune 500 companies.
The Company was founded in 1983 and is based in Franklin Lakes, New Jersey.
|
Share Statistics Jul-16-09 |
|
2007 |
2008 |
%Chg |
Q1 2008 |
Q1 2009 |
% Chg |
|
|
Symbol |
MHS |
Revenue, $ Mn |
44,506 |
51,258 |
15.2% |
12,963 |
14,834 |
14.4% |
|
Current price |
$47.69 |
Gross marg. |
6.6% |
7.3% |
70 b.p. |
6.9% |
6.4% |
-50 b.p. |
|
52wk Range: |
$29.80-$51.15 |
Oper. margin |
3.4% |
3.5% |
10 b.p. |
3.5% |
3.3% |
-20 b.p. |
|
Avg Vol (3m): |
3,497,700 |
Net margin |
2.0% |
2.0% |
0.0 b.p. |
2.1% |
2.0% |
-10 b.p. |
|
Market Cap. |
23.01B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dil. Shares Outst. |
2.26B |
EPS, $ |
1.63 |
2.13 |
30.7% |
0.50 |
0.58 |
16.0% |
Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.
For the first quarter of fiscal 2009, MHS’ net revenues rose 14.4% to $14.83 billion from $12.96 billion in the previous-year quarter, primarily as a result of contributions from significant new client wins and price inflation on brand-name drugs, partially offset by higher volumes of lower-priced generic drugs. The Company reported a net income of $291 million or $0.58 per share, compared to $270.2 million, or $0.50 per share, in the year-ago quarter.
The Company closed the first quarter with nearly $1.8 billion of cash in balance sheet, well over three times the $541 million at the end of the first quarter 2008 and almost double the $938 million at the close of the last quarter. MHS’ total debt remained at $4.6 billion and the Company expects to hold that level of debt through the end of 2009.
The Company said its second-quarter results should be similar to the first quarter, but the introduction of new generic drugs will add about 3 cents per share to its profit. In late April, MHS reiterated its fiscal 2009 full-year guidance and expects GAAP diluted earnings per share in the range of $2.45 to $2.55, representing 15% to 20% growth over fiscal 2008. The fiscal 2009 diluted EPS, excluding amortization of intangible assets, expected in the range of $2.67 to $2.77, representing 15% to 19% growth over fiscal 2008.
|
SALES (in $ millions) |
# of Estimates |
Mean |
High |
Low |
1 Year |
|
|
|||||
|
Quarter Ending Sep-09 |
17 |
14,505.30 |
15,565.00 |
13,441.00 |
13,118.80 |
|
Quarter Ending Dec-09 |
17 |
14,961.00 |
15,891.00 |
13,455.00 |
13,547.70 |
|
Year Ending Dec-09 |
18 |
58,747.50 |
61,442.00 |
53,566.00 |
53,493.20 |
|
Year Ending Dec-10 |
18 |
61,890.30 |
65,669.00 |
55,185.00 |
55,731.70 |
|
Earnings ($ per share) |
|||||
|
Quarter Ending Sep-09 |
18 |
0.70 |
0.71 |
0.66 |
0.68 |
|
Quarter Ending Dec-09 |
18 |
0.76 |
0.82 |
0.68 |
0.73 |
|
Year Ending Dec-09 |
21 |
2.73 |
2.77 |
2.55 |
2.71 |
|
Year Ending Dec-10 |
20 |
3.22 |
3.40 |
3.00 |
3.21 |
|
LT Growth Rate (%) |
14 |
17.04 |
20.00 |
13.00 |
17.43 |
Source: Reuters.com
In the past 52 weeks, shares have been trading in a range of $29.80 – $51.15. MHS has ascended 13% in 2009, outperforming the Dow and the S&P 500. Currently, shares are trading near their 52-week high.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Medco to “Outperform,” with 12 analyst recommending the stock a “Buy” up from 11 analysts three months ago; eight analysts expecting the stock to “Outperform,” the same number as three months ago; and two analysts rating the stock a “Hold,” down from three analysts three months ago. Thomson Reuters’ polled analysts anticipate revenue of $58,748 million and EPS of $2.73 for the fiscal year 2009.
Contracts worth $8.6 billion have been completed in 2009. Those deals are expected to bring $7 billion in net new revenue. Beginning January 1, 2009, MHS is administering the Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit on behalf of Coventry Health Care – the sixth largest U.S. health insurer by market value – for 1.2 million Medicare beneficiaries with annual drug spending of more than $2 billion. MHS will also manage prescriptions for Coventry Health Care Inc.’s commercial insurance and workers’ compensation businesses starting in 2010. The Company has completed over 97% of planned 2009 client renewals. All accounts with drug spend more than $500 million have been renewed. Overall, the 2009 client retention rate stands at more than 96%.
The Company’s profit had been boosted in recent quarters as more people tried to save money by filling their prescriptions through the mail instead of going to the drugstore. MHS has made mail-order prescriptions a centerpiece of its business, as it typically makes more profit when people fill 90-day prescriptions through the mail instead of at a pharmacy. However, at the end of 2008, the Company lost large two clients that made significant use of mail-order prescriptions. In the first quarter, mail-order prescriptions fell and retail prescriptions were higher than the Company expected. MHS’ newest clients make very little use of mail order, and about 9% of their prescriptions are filled by mail. The Company intends to boost that rate over the next few years.
President Obama’s support for electronic medical records is one of the key efforts of health reform. Only about 8% of the nation’s 5,000 hospitals and 17% of its 800,000 physicians currently use the kind of common computerized record-keeping systems that Obama envisions for the whole nation. MHS and Google Health are working for strives to deliver electronic health records for Americans. The companies’ collaboration enables MHS’ more than 60 million members to construct their own online personal health record (PHR), effectively creating a secure and private place for their health information to be stored. Those members who choose to create a Google Health profile, which can contain both pharmacy and medical record data, and authorize MHS to transfer their prescription information into the profile, can then use it to share their information with physicians or other health care providers to ensure those providers are working with the most current and accurate information.
In its annual survey of drug trends, MHS said that prescription drug use in the U.S. fell last year, although prescription drug spending climbed 3.3% in 2008 over 2007, even though prices for brand-name products rose about 8%. Those higher prices were offset by sales of generic drugs, which accounted for 64% of all prescriptions filled by MHS in 2008, up from 60% the previous year. The strongest growth came from diabetes drugs, and use of specialty treatments for cancer, along rheumatological disease, seizure disorders and antiviral drugs also increased. The report also forecasts prescription drug spending to increase by 4% to 7% annually through 2011. An aging U.S. population also plays into MHS’ hands by increasing the overall demand for medications.
While current market turmoil has investors wondering about the safety of their savings, Forbes listed MHS as one of “The 100 Most Trustworthy Companies.” Forbes published its listing based upon Audit Integrity’s ranking of corporate accounting and management practices. MHS also captured the No. 1 position within the Health Care: Pharmacy and Other Services sector on Fortune’s World’s Most Admired Companies List. In addition, of all companies surveyed globally, MHS was ranked No. 5 in Innovation and No. 10 in People Management. The Company is ranked No. 51 on the Fortune 500 list.
The United States spends more than $2.2 trillion on health care each year—almost $8,000 per person. According to President Obama, if the health insurance system is not reformed, it would lead to higher costs for families and businesses, as well as bankruptcy for Medicare and Medicaid, the federal health programs for elderly and poor Americans. President Obama’s 2010 Budget lays the groundwork for reform of the American health care system, most notably by setting aside a deficit-neutral reserve fund of $635 billion over 10 years to help finance reform of our health care system to bring down costs, expand coverage, and improve quality.
PureSpectrum Inc. (PSPM) engages in developing, marketing, licensing and contract manufacturing of lighting technology for use in residential, commercial and industrial applications worldwide. The Company offers a family of technologies, including under cabinet fluorescent, compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), dimmable CFLs, linear fluorescents, dimming devices and lighting systems. It also owns various patents, pending patents and provisional patents relating to electronic ballast and lighting control technology, as well as markets its technology to lighting products manufacturers, retail outlets, electric utilities and directly to consumers. The Company was founded in 2000 and is based in Savannah, Georgia.
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) engages in the design, manufacture and sale of solar electric power modules using a proprietary thin film semiconductor technology. The Company’s solar modules employ a thin layer of cadmium telluride semiconductor material to convert sunlight into electricity. It sells its products to project developers, system integrators and operators of renewable energy projects in the United States and Europe. FSLR also focuses on designing and deploying commercial solar projects for utilities in the United States. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings Inc. and changed its name to First Solar Inc. in 2006. FSLR was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona. continue
Posted by (1) Comment
..when my readers email me with ideas on stocks to blog! I got an emal from a subscriber saying that I needed to check out COTE. I get emails all the time talking about the “stock of the day”. Some are company personnel or their Investment Bankers wanting me to plug their company. I have to be careful with that. But, I liked what I saw with COTE, so here goes.
This stock looks to be a little past its “sell-by” date. It has had a strong run up this week, but is looking overheated. Two key indicators (RSI and Stcchastics) are showing that the stock is overbought. That means to me that it may correct in the next few days. Profits have to be taken at some time. I liked what I saw, but am concerned just how long this run will last. The stock is up another 10% in trading today, but be very careful.
Now, let’s talk about COTE. Coates International, Ltd. is involved in the development and production of Coates spherical rotary valve system (CSRV System) for use in various piston-driven internal combustion engines. The company is claiming that they have created the internal combustion engine of the future. It has significant benefits compared to the engines of today:
The company has had some revenues (from licensing the technology and sale of their HQ building in 2008), but they haven’t achieved any steady income. Like all R & D companies they are hurting for cash, but it doesn’t look terminal. I, for one, am rooting for them. They appear to be building some nice momentum from reading news on the company (remember the old adage in this business: believe little of what you read about pennny stocks). COTE makes noise about being a manufacturer, but the near-term revenue is going to come from licensing. That revenue could be substantial if certain government or corporate influencers get behind their technology. That is a pretty big IF.
The chart will back up what I had said earlier. The stock might be due for a correction in the near future. Any kind of reasonable “support” for the stock is around the 50 cent mark….so, it could fall a long way!
I would keep it on your radar, though. If it corrects that might be a good time to buy given what I see from this company.