Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corp. (ADMP.OB)
There is an old saying that I love: “It ain’t bragging if you can back it up”. While the ADMP people aren’t saying they are going to be a ten-bagger, I am. And, I think they will back it up for me.
I haven’t been this excited about a pharma company for quite some time. Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corp. (ADMP.OB) currently is a beaten-down pharma stock that isn’t generating much positive buzz. Their reverse merger with Cellegy in 2009 (to go public) generated a lot of bad blood and their recent unsuccessful attempt to merge with La Jolla Pharmaceuticals left many traders wondering if the company was going to be able to survive. The boards are, by and large, down on ADMP. The negative comments I am hearing center around their lack of financing, poor results for their highly touted Epinephrene syringe initiative and disbelief in the company’s current strategic direction. In fact, there is still a great deal of short activity surrounding ADMP. Yesterday’s FINRA report shows that out of 150,500 shares traded….33,000 were shorts.
To my mind NOW is a great time to have ADMP on your trading radar.
I have known about ADMP for quite some time. I actually did a blog the company in August of 2009 when the stock was at $0.24. I titled my blog “When it goes, it will go big“. Well, it did go big…for awhile. Shortly after I blogged it, ADMP went on a run to $0.45 (a gain of over 87% in less than two weeks). I got many emails from traders thanking me for that call. Since then, the stock has been very volatile trading in a range between $0.55 and $0.15 and is currently is trading right around the $0.25 mark.
It is time to take a close look at ADMP again.
ADMP calls itself a commercial-stage specialty pharmaceutical company. click here for website. The site needs updating, but it will give you more information about the company.
Before I wrote this blog, I did extensive research on the company, reading financials and talking with both the IR firm and several officers of the company. All have extraordinary confidence in the company. On its face it might be hard to share their optimism, but I drilled into the company and found out some things that make me very high on the stock.
Financing will come
All of my conversations with the company and its IR firm started and ended with the question…..”What about financing”. While the company would not give me any details on current financing efforts, I got the impression that something was imminent. The company is highly motivated to raise the capital since one of the conditions of their recent acquisition of their prostate cancer drug candidates was a minimum equity raise of $2MM. I am inferring here, but I couldn’t see a company licensing its technology to ADMP (especially since they have blockbuster drug potential) without real confidence that the financing could be accomplished.
Once this initial financing is accomplished, the company believes this will be the last financing it will ever have to do because of the following.
The “Steak and Sizzle” Growth Strategy
I had a very extensive conversation with Dr. Dennis Carlo, CEO and President. I came away very impressed with Dr. Carlo (more on him later).
Dr. Carlo used an analogy for ADMP’s growth strategy calling it the “Steak and Sizzle” plan. What he means by that is that the “meat” of the company is their Epinephrene syringe product that can conceivably generate many millions of dollars for the company NOW. The product has been approved by all of the major medical supply distributors (Amerisource Bergen, Cardinal Health, McKesson, etc…), major drug chains and a number of insurance companies. It is priced significantly below the current competition’s products and the company is aiming at capturing 10% to 20% of a $200MM market…which could mean millions to the company annually. However, the success of this strategy is heavily dependent on achieving financing which hopefully they will accomplish soon.
The company has lined up manufacturers….all it needs is the capital to produce production quantities for distributors to stock and reps to sell. Dr. Carlo’s actually is convinced that the Epinephrene sales could make the company profitable in its first year AND fund the trials for its other drug candidates.
Part of his “steak” strategy are two other products:
- Nasal Steroid for the treatment of Allergic Rhinitis – The company is very high on this product (Beclomethasone HFA aerosolized nasal steroid….to be exact) that would gain the company entrance into a $3 Billion market. The product is not expected to be ready for launch until 2012, but the company has high hopes for it. They also have two other extensions of Beclomethasone for Asthma and COPD expected to be released in 2013.
- A topical contraceptive for women (C31G) – Hidden away in their SEC documents is a product that has passed Phase III testing with the FDA and might represent income (either from sale or licensing) for the company. This product is a wildcard because the company has made no announcements of what they plan to do with it or the financial impact of the product. This was a technology that came with the Cellegy reverse merger. I will be looking for some news on this one in the near future.
The “sizzle” are a suite of products that were recently licensed from Colby Pharmaceuticals Corporation (read the full release here) that cover three small molecule compounds for the possible treatment of prostate cancer (PCa) called CPC 100, CPC 200 and CPC 300. These three drugs are initially targeted at prostate cancer, but have application to many other types of cancer.
All are reasonably early stage (phase 1 and 2), but have already shown great promise. According to the company, over $18 million has been spent developing the drugs to this point.
In 2006 and 2007, CPC-100 and CPC-200, respectively, received the National Cancer Institute’s multi-year, multi-million dollar RAPID (Rapid Access to Preventative Intervention Development) Award. Each year, this award is given by the NCI Division of Cancer Prevention, under the RAPID Program, to the most promising new preventative/ therapeutic anti-cancer drugs.
These drugs are very promising, but are years (and many FDA trials) away from being ready for market. However, the payoff could be enormous for the company. The National Institute of Health states prostate cancer is the most common cancer in America, affecting 1 in 6 men. Prostate cancer accounted for nearly one quarter of all new cancer diagnoses of all new male cancer diagnoses. Worldwide, about 395,000 men are diagnosed with prostate cancer each year and the incidence is on the increase. The NIH estimates that prostate cancer therapeutics in the U.S., Europe and Japan will cost $ 7.3 billion in 2011.
The point man for ADMP
Dr. Dennis Carlo is a very impressive man, as I mentioned earlier. Here is his bio from the website (edited by me for brevity):
Dr. Carlo is a co-founder of Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation and……and has extensive biotech research and development experience …… He served as Vice President of Research and Development and Therapeutic Manufacturing at Hybritech Inc., which was acquired by Eli Lilly & Co in 1985. After the sale to Lilly, Dr. Carlo, along with Dr. Jonas Salk, James Glavin and Kevin Kimberland, founded The Immune Response Corporation, a public company, where he served in various capacities from Chief Scientific Officer, COO and President and Chief Executive Officer. He served as president of Telos Pharmaceuticals, a private biotechnology company, prior to founding ADMP. Dr. Carlo has extensive experience in the development of vaccines and biologics. He has a Ph.D. in Immunology and Medical Microbiology from Ohio State University. He is named on 23 patents and has authored over 225 articles and abstracts in the field of Immunology.
Being the skeptic that I am, I also took a trip through Google trying to find any “dirt” on the good Dr. I found none! He appears to be just as advertised: A seasoned, accomplished pharma/immunology expert that is passionate about his company.
Their Dendreon (DNDN) fascination
When I talk to people at ADMP, they always bring up Dendreon, Inc. (DNDN) as a model for the kind of company they could become. (emphasis on “could”) They believe their prostate cancer drug candidates have the potential to be more effective against a wider range of cancers than even DNDN. The amazing story of DNDN was that the stock skyrocketed even before the technology was proven. According to my conversations with the company….DNDN only delays the inevitable (i.e. The patient will live longer, but still die). ADMP’s drug candidates could represent a cure for certain cancers. Everything is couched in “maybe” or “possibly”, but I get the very real feeling that Dr. Carlo believes that he has a cure for certain cancers.
The Chart
While ADMP is not a short-term play to me, I am including a chart just so you can see the volatility inherent in the stock. The stock has made some strong moves over the past year…and could again. And, with the high short positions being taken, any short squeezes could really rocket the stock.

The Bottom Line
ADMP is, to me, a short-term and a long-term play. I am buying some and plan on holding it for a minimum of several months. I am not against however selling into any spikes, recovering my original investment and “playing with the house’s money” to quote the old gambling adage. I think that ADMP has great long-term potential. Dr. Carlo pointed out to me that while CEO at Immune Response Corporation, he took the stock from $0.50 to $60.00. It is unknown if ADMP can make the same kind of jump, but I like the fact that Dr. Carlo has “been there, done that” with another public company.
The company still has a long way to go. If and when the company is able to secure financing, they will still have to execute on their “Steak and Sizzle” business plan. The chart will continue to be weighted down with shorters who will do everything in their power to drive the shares down further.
Despite the potential of a DNDN-type stock price move, the other option for the company is to be acquired. Johnson and Johnson (J & J) set the bar for the acquisition of companies with prostate cancer drug candidates with its US$1.0bn acquisition of Cougar Biotechnology in 2007. The acquisition, which was valued at US$43 per share, saw J&J acquire candidate drugs focused on prostate and breast cancers. This hefty valuation was in the face of the fact that Cougar was still in phase 1 trials for most of their drugs. The market is not as frothy as it was in 2007, but the point is that larger companies are always willing to pay well for technologies they don’t have…and want!
Here is what I am looking at for entry/exit points
Last Close: $0.26
Buy Opinion: $0.22 to $0.30 (with a stop loss at $0.17)
Short Term Sell: $0.50 to $0.75
Long Term Sell: $1.50+
Good Luck and Great Trading,
Jeffrey Dean
Disclosure: Long ADMP
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