Oil and Gas plays have been very popular with Soup members this year.  We have seen some solid gains from this sector and I expect that trend to continue.  One thing that I have noticed is that many of our oil and gas picks have been solely exploration companies.  They are sitting on (exploring) some very promising properties, but much of their value is based on expectations of earnings.

Not so with today’s alert stock.  Doral Energy Corporation (DRLY)

DRLY is BOTH an exploration company and a PRODUCTION company. continue

It seems that with all the hysteria and hype surrounding gold, our email boxes are being flooded with mail about the next “hot Gold stock”.  Arguably, some are very “hot” and others are “not”.  One of my more regular and enthusiastic members, Michael K. sent me an email alerting me to a Gold play that I had never heard of:  Constitution Mining Corporation (CMIN).

On its face, it is no different than most gold plays.  CMIN has 2 gold fields (in their case the Gold Sands Region of Northeastern Peru) that, according to the company, has proven reserves of over 72 MILLION ounces.  They are busy “proving out” these claims and, while they have no current revenue, are hoping to be a producing gold mining company in 2010.

Here is a link to their website which has a lot of information: CMIN site. They have a nice intro video on the first page that gives good info about their plan and prospects.

What sets CMIN apart is that investors are backing them whenever they need money….and, that is all the time.  With a burn rate of an average of a $1,000,000 per quarter, bank accounts shrink rapidly.  But, CMIN has been able to raise the capital they need WHEN they need it.  They have done several rounds of financing since they “came back to life” as CMIN two years ago.  Rumor has it that they just recently completed a $5MM round recently at a very good price for the investors.

A little aside here (and a teachable moment) - CMIN is the 4th incarnation of their public shell which started out 9 years ago as Crafty Admiral Enterprises (a seller of classic auto parts).  Two other failed ventures (oil and gas, nickel) completed the resume until CMIN took over.  So you see…..these companies rarely go away, they just change names.  There is no guarantee that an investor in the first business back in 2000 would still have valuable shares (due to recapitalizations, reverse splits, etc…), but CMIN’s situation is highly instructive to what happens with penny shells.

O.K. back to CMIN! - Here is the chart for CMIN.

CMIN is not a low-priced stock. It has a hefty valuation for a company that is still an exploration company.  I talked with the company and they are very bullish about their prospects.  The geology and potential of their gold fields could make them a high flier, the financing (and their ability to raise funds not once, but several times) speaks volumes about the efficacy of their claims.

I recommend watching CMIN. It would be nice to see if it could retest its recent high of $1.90, but this might be a longer term play.  I would definitely play the volatility, but keep this one on your target list.

Good luck and good trading

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.

I spent hours every day looking through stock screens searching for companies that I can share with my readers and members that I believe present “profit opportunities”.   I could be looking for a stock to fall or rise.  When I select it, I try to do the underlying research and then do the chart analysis so my readers can make their own decisions.

Today’s stock actually is a little bit scary…..it is in the midst of a prolonged selloff and I can’t quite understand why.  The selling pressure is so high right now that I expect it to bounce in the near term.  Once it finds a bottom (therein lies the challenge).

U.S. Concrete, Inc. (RMIX) has shed over 60% of its stock value since early November.  One share costing$1.90 stock on November 1st can be bought for only $0.74.

Take a look at the chart:

The chart ix painful to look at, but I think that there is an opportunity with RMIX.  Don’t catch the falling knife, but radar this one.  IMHO, the stock will find a bottom soon and then begin adding back value to its shareholders.

RMIX is in a depressed industry (Ready Mix Concrete), has been forced to write-off huge amounts of goodwill for acquisitions it has made previously, has issues with noteholders and banks (liquidity problems and covenant breaches) and faces an uncertain future.  In other words…..they are just like any other company in today’s economy.

I am not trying to trivialize their situation, but I feel that shareholders are overreacting and that could mean an opportunity for traders.  I have searched the news and boards to check and see if RMIX is headed for BK or something dire and can’t come up with anything.  All of the sellers are about out of the stock….time to be a contrarian and take a look at RMIX.

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.

Regional Banks seem to be the leaders in bank failures today.  Their regionalization can sometimes be the reason they fail at a higher rate than other banks.  Today’s blog subject is no different:  Synovus Financial, Inc. (SNV).

I am not a bank analyst….I am a chart guy. The only reason I am bringing up SNV is because they have a chart that looks interesting to me.

SNV describes itself as a financial services holding company with approximately $34 billion in assets based in Columbus, Georgia. SNV provides commercial and retail banking, as well as investment services, to customers through 30 banks, 332 offices, and 466 ATMs in Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee.”  O.K. it is clearly a regional bank!

Much of my analysis is anecdotal in nature because there is NO way I am going to read the latest 10-Q or 10-K all the way through.  I used to be a bank auditor and would probably break out in hives if I did.  What I see is the following:

• The recent exchange offer for their long term notes was a middling success.  Over 12% of their holders accepted SNV’s offer for the exchange of shares for their debt.  Both good  and bad news can be inferred from this exchange: SNV shed $30MM in debt and only gave up stock (good), the current debt holders didn’t want to own shares in SNV and rejected the offer (bad….they may want the superior recovery provisions of debt holders rather than shareholders)
• $983,000,000 in TARP funds - my conversations with the company lead me to believe that those funds will not be repaid in the near term.  So, Obama will continue to run SNV.
• Liquidity provisions -  One of the questions that I put to the company was whether they were in default on any of their notes.  The answer was an emphatic “NO”, but upon reviewing their balance sheet I would say that are only in “fair” shape.  A new wave of writeoffs could change that opinion in a big hurry.
• Return to profitability - Assuming no more massive write-downs or mark-to-market fiascos, SNV expects to return to profitability in 2010.

To the Chart:

SNV looks like it might have bottomed and could be a good bounce play. It is a “BDC”, as I like to call it, (Big Dang Company) that has traded as high at $9.83 in the last 52 weeks.  It is just coming off of its 52-week low of $1.86 set in October.  Do your own due diligence and see if you don’t agree.

The last reason to trade SNV is that Jim Cramer DOESN’T like SNV.  That is enough reason for me to invest….Jim is usually wrong!

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.

Who woulda thunk?….That you can make fuel out of that green stuff that used to get stuck between your toes when you waded in swamps and ponds.  Origin Oil is only one of several companies that are hard at work trying to commercialize the technology to extract oil from algae.

I have followed OOIL for several months and like what I see.  It is a development-stage company but they seem to run a “tight ship”.

Here is a really good description of  the company and its goals (taken from a corporate presentation):

“The OriginOil business model can be compared to Microsoft’s in the world of computers. It is OriginOil’s intention to become part of the operating system of the algae industry (delusions of grandeur? - ed.). ……. OriginOil plans to sell its technology through its network, both as integrated technology and as branded devices, and to offer its services to help design, build and manage algae installations the world over. To help reach customers widely, it intends to develop regional partners to provide local manufacturing, sales, and services to regional end users.

The company is not in the business of producing and marketing algae-based oil or fuel as an end product. (emphasis added) OriginOil is in the preliminary stages of commercializing its scalable algae-to-oil technology. In Sept. 2009, the company presented the first comprehensive algae production model, developed with the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) of the Department of Energy under its collaborative research agreement with OriginOil.  (The Algae PDF is also an excellent sleep aid…it is packed with a great deal of information about algae)

The Chart (annotated below) looks promising.  See for yourself.

I encourage my members to put OOIL on their radar list.   OOIL is still many years away from being a revenue-producing company, but they appear to have some solid momentum going for them and run a tight ship as I had mentioned earlier.  They are, in my estimation, a short-term trade and with this chart and the buzz that is surrounding it could very well move.

Good luck and good trading.

I monitor a number of boards including our own Stock Hideout.  “Supposed” hot stocks are flying all over the board, so that I almost have become immune to all of the hype.  However, one name that keeps popping up (so much that I can’t ignore it) is Atlantic Wind and Solar (AWSL).  I must admit that I first heard about AWSL in mid-August when it was around $1.20.  Looked interesting, but seemed extended. Boy, was I wrong.

AWSL reached an intraday high of $4.84 today. It was a rocking stock, too.  Short sellers hit it and it dropped down to $3.02 only to recover strong and close at $3.89.  The question that it begs is are the short sellers going to rule or not.  Tim Sykes was all over AWSL and, while he is right that it has been promoted vigorously, I am not convinced that it is going to fall.

AWSL (The Company) - Whoever wrote their website copy majored in expressive writing in college, but I was able to cut through the flowery speech and figure out what these guys do.  They are aiming to be in the forefront of the wind and solar revolution that is sweeping the world.  By partnering with corporations, associations, land and business owners, AWSL will install, service, manage solar and wind installations that can range from a single rooftop to a full parks.  They are touting relationships that they are working on that will drive them to profitability and a pre-eminent position in the industry in a short time.

The important thing to remember that solar is not the answer to our energy dilemma, just part of the answer.  Most solar installations have a hard time running…um, in the dark for instance.  However, a combination of tax incentives, energy savings, profits from sale of excess energy and the cachet of being green should make this a hot commodity to their intended customers.

Keep in mind that AWSL has two things going for it:  News and Chart

The latest release proclaims that “AWSL Strengthens Alliances and Declares Dividend”

AWSL has a small float (under 20MM shares I am told) and this dividend will increase their market liquidity.  The release went on say, AWSL has “declared a 1-for-3 stock dividend, payable on December 7, 2009 to shareholders of record on November 23, 2009. For every three (3) common shares held on the record date, shareholders will receive 1 free additional share on the payable date.”  That to me will spur more buying in the stock.

Another release that I find encouraging is that they have retained an SEC auditor to get them compliant as part of their plan to upgrade their stock listing (AMEX would be my guess).  It is about time!

Here is their chart with my comments:

Also of note are several insider buys.  Two insiders have purchased a combined $3.2 million in stock at prices ranging from 50 cents to $1.54.  Obviously, they are betting that AWSL will go a lot higher.

My conclusion is that traders should radar list AWSL.  If you trade it, make sure you have a tight trailing stop on it.  Take the gains as they present themselves.  If the stock goes up appreciably, you can relax the trailing stop so you don’t get “stopped out” on any dips (and there will be some IMO).  If this stock gets hot, it could be a $10.00 stock based upon the buzz about it…..Don’t trust buzz though.  I would like to see AWSL start booking deals, signing contracts, getting necessary financing, become a reporting company, etc…, but until then I still remain a fan.

Good luck and good trading

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.

Back on August 24th of this year, I did a blog on Expo Holdings, Inc. (EXPH). The blog was entitled, “EXPH:  Something or Nothing?  I ended my blog with the words:

“Bottom line: This penney stock may have a run in it.  Be careful if it gaps up at open.   This is not a good penny stock to chase.”

I based my evaluation on the chart and the buzz.  Well, the chart is back and so is the buzz.  I think that EXPH might have another run in it.  Oh, by the way, the penny stock did EXACTLY what I thought it would do.  It went from $.0145 to .0350 in just a few days (a 141% profit in a perfect world….even if you clipped the corners of the trade, you could still have booked over 100%).  Now I have to say, “past results are no guarantee of future results” just so you know that I am guaranteeing NOTHING.  I just think that it is a good time to take another look at EXPH.  The ask on EXPH is $0.0105.  Penny stock land, indeed!

Here is a link to that previous blog.  EXPH: Something or Nothing

As I reported previously, EXPH’s focus is to become a holding company, to acquire and develop companies that sell products in the retail sector. One division, D & D Displays, is a manufacturer of display fixtures for retailers like Lowe’s and custom cabinetry for retail sales.  The second (from the EXPH website) is 1st Choice Closets.  I am not sure how this company fits in with their latest press release about a new website (easytoinstall.com) and a new line of products that will be unveiled next month.   This is a non-reporting company, so you will have to get by with their corporate updates (which are always rosy).

Here is the latest chart:

Bottom line 2: This stock may have another run in it.  With the volume that this has daily it is an easy-in, easy-out penny stock that I like.   EXPH is still a perfect penny stock…lousy financials, some decent PR and lots of buzz.  Set your stop losses if you trade it….their is not much supp0rt for the stock at this level, but I don’t see it falling much further.

Good luck and good trading

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.

XODG could be ready to SURGE following news with COSTCO and SEARS today

After a down week on the DOW, I am looking forward to “setting things right” for members.  PROFITS is the name of the game and I have some exciting companies that I can’t wait to share with my members this week….starting with today’s alert on Xodtec Group (XODG)

XODG designs, manufactures, markets and sells lighting solutions, specializing in light emitting diode (LED) lighting and other lighting. The company is based in Taiwan, but has begun an aggressive sales expansion into other markets (more on that later).

First, I think we all need to focus on a MAJOR NEWS ANNOUNCEMENT which I think could really give this stock some legs today (CLICK HERE TO READ THE NEWS).  This is the kind of news that will really help it get the attention of bigger investors.  They are slow to react, so that is why I want you to be ahead of the curve and get familiar with the story going on here.  As you’ll read below XODG is an awesome manufacturer of the next-generation in light bulbs (all my reasons below).

The problem most new companies with a great technology have is that they can’t get it out to consumers.  I think that XODG has overcome a major hurdle today and will now have the resources to get out to reach not just larger commercial clients, but average consumers like you and me will now be able to get our hands on these great products.

Here is a great quote from today’s news by Curtis Su, Chairman of XODG, “Through this new relationship with Normande Lighting, Xodtec hopes to successfully introduce its indoor LED lighting products to a host of new potential customers at Sears, Costco, Lowe’s and Bed Bath & Beyond.”

What are LED’s and why are they taking the lighting market by storm?

• Incandescent and Compact Fluorescent Bulbs are Heaters that Produce Light as a Byproduct (I never thought of it that way)
• LED lighting is more efficient, durable, versatile and longer lasting than incandescent and fluorescent lighting.
• LEDs emit light in a specific direction, whereas an incandescent or fluorescent bulb emits light — and heat — in all directions.
• LED lighting uses both light and energy more efficiently. For example, an incandescent or compact fluorescent  (CFL) bulb inside of a recessed can will waste about half of the light that it produces, while a recessed down light with LEDs only produces light where it’s needed — in the room below.”                                                                                                                                       Source:  http://www.energystar.gov/

The savings for businesses can run between 20% and 50% of their total electric bill….we are talking a lot of money!

According to US Business.gov, “Lighting is a critical component of every small business….. Depending on the type of business you operate, lighting accounts for 20% to 50% of electricity consumption. This means that significant cost savings can be achieved with energy-efficiency improvements, and due to continually improving equipment, lighting usually provides the highest return-on-investment of major upgrades.”

Spotlight on XODG

In Taiwan, XODG has built a strong sales organization that sells their lighting products and solutions.

They sell in several channels:

• ?Architectural, garden, public lighting: Marketing through internal sales teams, franchise channels, and public project management channels and individual lighting agencies that sell to government / construction / public lighting design houses.
• Commercial and residential lighting: Marketing through franchised stores, service stations and interior decorators. XODG believes customers are better served by selling through these outlets which sometimes bundle sales and installation.
• Energy efficiency solution and localization service: Working through this broad range of industry relationships, XODG also markets its service offering.

?Manufacturing: XODG relies on outsourced manufacturing and assembly. XODG engineers and designs all LED lighting systems internally and purchases all LED’s used in LED lighting products and systems from qualified 3rd party manufacturers in Asia and the U.S.

You could look for a long time in the small cap marketplace and not be able to find a company that is as strong as our alert company is.

Here are some of the FINANCIAL highlights about XODG:

• The company is CURRENTLY generating REVENUES and PROFITS!  — how many small cap stocks can claim that?
  • XODG generated 1st Q 2009 Revenues of $1.2MM with net income of $724K (with an amazing 83.8% gross profit margin)
  • XODG has issued revenue guidance for the 2nd Q of 2009 of over $3MM with profits of $750K
    
  • XODG issued revenue guidance for 3rd Q of over $4MM with net profit of $1.2MM
  • XODG has no long term debt
  • XODG had Current Assets of over $2.2MM at end of Q1….Quick ratio of almost 3 to 1
  • XODG raised $1MM in two private placements in July of 2009

It appears that XODG knows how to build a profitable business (as they have done in Taiwan), but now they have set their sights on expansion to China and Europe.

According to the company, XODG expects to begin selling in China by the last Q of 2009. They have already achieved a significant milestone in China.  Xodtec LED Street Light Receives Chinese Certification.

You can continue your due diligence here:  XODG Website - Edgar Filings - Research Report

This is a great deal of information to digest, but one of the nice things about XODG is that they appear very scrupulous in getting information out about the company.  Anything a trader/investor might want to know is in there: historical figures, revenue guidance, marketing imperatives, etc…

The one thing we haven’t talked about yet is their chart. The chart shows that the stock has only been trading since early September. Once public, it made an immediate run to almost $2.00 per share before giving back that gain to where it currently sits at around $1.04.  The MACD is showing a bearish signal, but I am not too concerned at this early stage of the company’s trading history.  At Friday’s closing price, MarketWatch.com says that XODG has a market cap of just under $20 million.  With all that this company has going for it I think there is a lot of upside from that starting point.

The stochastics are showing an oversold condition and combine that indicator with the buzz that is being generated about this stock, I believe that this stock could run again. Resistance and support are not really meaningful since the stock doesn’t have much history.  The stock could very well retest its $2.00 high.  If it reaches that number with enough momentum, there is no telling where this stock could end up.

Perhaps Thomas Edison (the father of the light bulb) knew of XODG when he said,

“Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.“

I don’t think anyone can accuse XODG of not working hard (and smart) towards their goal of global domination.  Well, maybe not global domination, but how about being a force in every market they enter. This could mean some great returns for its shareholders.

I recommend to all of my members to watch this one closely.  I know that everyone will have a very busy day watching both TPIV and XODG, but the potential profits are worth it.

Good luck and good trading

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